Excerpt of an article posted to the ARK Invest website on 7/15/22

According to the research of ARK Invest, during the next five years the auto industry as measured in units will grow, but as measured by enterprise value, it will shrink. In 2021, the number of light vehicles sold globally was 78 million and the enterprise value of automakers, roughly $3.5 trillion. According to IHS Markit, during the next five years unit auto sales will increase at a 4.7% compound annual growth rate and hit a new high at 98 million units in 2026. ARK’s Non-Autonomous EV Base Case agrees with the consensus view that unit sales will increase by 20 million during the next five years but that the enterprise value of global automakers is likely to drop roughly 20% to ~$2.8 trillion. If autonomous taxi services were to emerge, as ARK’s research suggests will be the case, then vehicle unit sales are likely to drop 8% to 72 million, cutting the enterprise value of traditional automakers by more than 60% to $1.3 trillion, as shown below.

Link to Complete Article

(This is Blog Post #1256)

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